Simulating spatial pattern of urban growth using GIS-based SLEUTH model: a case study of eastern corridor of Tehran metropolitan region, Iran

Abstract

Tehran metropolitan region (TMR) has experienced rapid urbanization in the last few decades. This accelerating urbanization trend mainly arising from high natural population growth and rural–urban migration along with rapid socioeconomic changes formed unplanned and uncontrolled urban expansion in peri-urban areas and resulted in degrading environmental quality and considerable changes in the urban landscapes of the TMR. Thus, the main objective of this research is to model spatial pattern of urban growth in eastern corridor of TMR using GIS-based SLEUTH model and the prediction of future developments of the region from 2014 to 2060. The SLEUTH is one of the most powerful models for urban growth modeling. This model analyzes the spatial pattern of urban growth based on historical data obtained from satellite images of 1987, 2003, 2011, and 2014. The results indicate that the most important factors affecting the urban growth are slope resistance and road gravity. The slope resistance is the highest coefficients value, which illustrates the limiting influence of the slopes on general trend of urban growth in eastern corridor of the TMR. The road gravity stands in second place where it displaces orientation of linear form of outlying pattern alongside the transportation network; it represents that the main pattern of urban growth in peri-urban areas of the region have a linear nature and edge expansion due to slope resistance and road-influenced growth, while spread, diffusion, and breed coefficients display low probability of new spreading center and spontaneous growth in the study area. In addition, the prediction of urban growth for 2020–2060 revealed that urban expansion which was 41,500 ha in 2014 will increase to 179,400 ha in 2060 with noticeable growth rate of 145.6 %. Comparing study area and other researches indicate that the urban growth happens in high rate in eastern corridor. One of the main reasons of this growth goes back to the formation of the second homes for residents of Tehran metropolitan city.