Abstract
We sought to evaluate contact rate reduction goals for household and close contacts and to provide preventive recommendations during the coronavirus pandemic. We applied an agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within household or close contacts through a social network of 150 nodes. there is no great difference in total infected people within modifications in number of links per node for networks with average number of links per node greater than three. For six nodes, total infected people are 149.85; for five nodes, 148.97; and for four nodes, 141.57. On the other hand, for three nodes, total infected are 82.39, for two nodes, 13.95; and for one node, 2.96. This model indicates a possible pitfall if social distancing measures are not stepwise suspended and close surveillance of cases are not provided, since the relationship between average links per node and number of infected people seems to be s-shaped, and not linear.
Highlights
Several studies estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Results are based on mean number of infected people after 100 simulations of the model (Figures 1 and 2)
Contact rate reduction is a widespread preventive measure adopted against SARS-CoV-2 pandemics and simulations confirms its effectiveness 18
Summary
Several studies estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Considering a R0 of 8, it would be necessary to reduce the contact rate for each infectious case by about 90%, and for asymptomatic people by about 78%, to reach a R0 of less than 1 if we want to achieve effective results of social distancing measures 8. This contact rate reduction considers the average dynamics of transmission and do not provide information about specific situations such as household transmission or close contacts, in schools or offices. The estimated SAR among close contacts of SARS-CoV-2 is 35% 9
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