Abstract
This study evaluated the site-specific effects of projected future climate conditions on the productivity of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) plantations over the next 50 years (2011-2061). Climatic parameters as predicted by the Canadian Global Climate Model in association with a regional spatial climatic model, under 3 emissions scenarios (no change (NC), B1 and A2), were used as input values to a biophysical-based site-specific height-age model that was integrated into the CROPLANNER model and associated algorithm. Plantations managed under a basic silvicultural intensity on two site qualities at each of two geographically separated sites (northeastern and northwestern Ontario, Canada) were assessed. The results indicated that the stands situated on low-to-medium quality sites at both locations were largely unaffected by the predicted increase in temperature and precipitation rates. Conversely, however, stands situated on good-to-excellent quality sites grown under the B1 and A2 scenarios experienced consequential declines in stand development rates resulting in decreases in rotational mean sizes, biomass yields, recoverable end-product volumes, and economic worth. In addition to providing a plausible range of site-specific climate change outcomes on jack pine productivity within the central portion of the species range, these results suggest that future predictions that do not account for potential climate changes effects may overes- timate merchantable productivity on the higher site qualities by approximately 15%. As demonstrated, in- corporating biophysical-based site index functions within existing forest productivity models may repre- sent a feasible approach when accounting for climate change effects on yield outcomes of boreal species.
Highlights
Jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) occupies a wide range of sites throughout the northern temperate forest region of North America (Rudolph & Yeatman, 1982)
These results suggest that the warmer temperatures combined with increases in precipitation forecasted under the B1 and A2 scenarios may degrade the productivity of jack pine plantations
The simulation results from the CROPLANNER model indicated that future yields for stands situated on low-to-medium quality sites were largely unaffected by the predicted increased temperature and precipitation rates during the 2011-2061 period
Summary
Jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) occupies a wide range of sites throughout the northern temperate forest region of North America (Rudolph & Yeatman, 1982). Jack pine is one of the most economically important and intensely managed species within the Canadian Boreal Forest Region (Rowe, 1972). Recognition that the jack pine resource will be impacted by rapid changes in climate is well appreciated throughout the forest management and scientific communities (e.g., Parker et al, 2000; Colombo et al, 2007). Given that jack pine exhibits a large degree of phenotypic plasticity and has the ability to tolerate a wide range of climatic and site conditions, it is important to estimate how this valuable resource will fair under a changed climate. The approach employed the CROPLANNER decision-support model (Newton, 2009) which was modified through the incorporation of a bio-
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