Abstract
This project developed an integrated land cover/hydrological modeling framework using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) data, stakeholder input, climate information and projections, and empirical data to estimate future groundwater recharge on the Island of Maui, Hawaiʻi, USA. End-of-century mean annual groundwater recharge was estimated under four future land cover scenarios: Future 1 (conservation-focused), Future 2 (status-quo), Future 3 (development-focused), and Future 4 (balanced conservation and development), and two downscaled climate projections: a coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 “dry climate” future and a CMIP3 A1B “wet climate” future. Results were compared to recharge estimated using the 2017 baseline land cover to understand how changing land management and climate could influence groundwater recharge. Estimated recharge increased island-wide under all future land cover and climate combinations and was dominated by specific land cover transitions. For the dry future climate, recharge for land cover Futures 1 to 4 increased by 12%, 0.7%, 0.01%, and 11% relative to 2017 land cover conditions, respectively. Corresponding increases under the wet future climate were 10%, 0.9%, 0.6%, and 9.3%. Conversion from fallow/grassland to diversified agriculture increased irrigation, and therefore recharge. Above the cloud zone (610 m), conversion from grassland to native or alien forest led to increased fog interception, which increased recharge. The greatest changes to recharge occurred in Futures 1 and 4 in areas where irrigation increased, and where forest expanded within the cloud zone. Furthermore, new future urban expansion is currently slated for coastal areas that are already water-stressed and had low recharge projections. This study demonstrated that a spatially-explicit scenario planning process and modeling framework can communicate the possible consequences and tradeoffs of land cover change under a changing climate, and the outputs from this study serve as relevant tools for landscape-level management and interventions.
Highlights
Background and Study AreaMaui is the second-largest of the main Hawaiian Islands (1836 km2)
Remote sensing and spatial data products offer high-resolution information that can readily be combined with other data sources and incorporated into models for improved landscape change detection, scenario testing, and forecasting
Stakeholder input coalesced around four main themes, or decision variables, that were central to Maui land cover: forest conservation, agriculture and ranching, urban development, and freshwater use
Summary
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Mair et al [40] estimated recharge for Maui for 2017 land cover conditions and two downscaled climate projections but did not consider the effects of future land cover on recharge. They noted that such information would be helpful for evaluating the effects of planned development, climate-induced changes in the distribution of forest species, and watershed management and restoration efforts. Estimating recharge for a range of future land cover conditions can help resource managers assess the extent to which plausible land cover changes can mitigate the projected impacts of a changing climate on groundwater recharge and availability. Landscape-level assessments of potential future groundwater supplies under the influence of climate change could assist natural resource managers in preparing for an uncertain future, but such a comprehensive approach has not yet been applied in the Hawaiian Islands
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