Abstract
Abstract. Questions related to historical and future water resources and scarcity have been addressed by several macroscale hydrological models. One of these models is the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. However, further model developments were needed to holistically assess anthropogenic impacts on global water resources using VIC. Our study developed VIC-WUR, which extends the VIC model using (1) integrated routing, (2) surface and groundwater use for various sectors (irrigation, domestic, industrial, energy, and livestock), (3) environmental flow requirements for both surface and groundwater systems, and (4) dam operation. Global gridded datasets on sectoral demands were developed separately and used as an input for the VIC-WUR model. Simulated national water withdrawals were in line with reported Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) national annual withdrawals (adjusted R2 > 0.8), both per sector and per source. However, trends in time for domestic and industrial water withdrawal were mixed compared with previous studies. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly terrestrial water storage anomalies were well represented (global mean root-mean-squared error, RMSE, values of 1.9 and 3.5 mm for annual and interannual anomalies respectively), whereas groundwater depletion trends were overestimated. The implemented anthropogenic impact modules increased simulated streamflow performance for 370 of the 462 anthropogenically impacted Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) monitoring stations, mostly due to the effects of reservoir operation. An assessment of environmental flow requirements indicates that global water withdrawals have to be severely limited (by 39 %) to protect aquatic ecosystems, especially with respect to groundwater withdrawals. VIC-WUR has potential for studying the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic developments on current and future water resources and sector-specific water scarcity. The additions presented here make the VIC model more suited for fully integrated worldwide water resource assessments.
Highlights
Questions related to historical and future water resources and scarcity have been addressed by several macroscale hydrological models over the last few decades (Liang et al, 1994; Alcamo et al, 1997; Hagemann and Gates, 2001; Takata et al, 2003; Krinner et al, 2005; Bondeau et al, 2007; Hanasaki et al, 2008b; van Beek and Bierkens, 2009; Best et al, 2011)
To assess the capability of the newly developed modules, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)-WUR results were compared with Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) national water withdrawals by sector and by source (FAO, 2016); with Huang et al (2018), Steinfeld et al (2006), and Shiklomanov (2000) data on water withdrawals by sector; with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage anomalies (NASA, 2002); with Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) streamflow time series (GRDC, 2003); and with Yassin et al (2019) and Hanasaki et al (2006) data on reservoir operation (Sect. 3.2)
In VIC-5, all grid cells are processed before continuing to the time step. This development allows for interaction between grid cells every time step, which is important for full integration of the anthropogenic impact modules, especially water withdrawals and dam operation
Summary
Questions related to historical and future water resources and scarcity have been addressed by several macroscale hydrological models over the last few decades (Liang et al, 1994; Alcamo et al, 1997; Hagemann and Gates, 2001; Takata et al, 2003; Krinner et al, 2005; Bondeau et al, 2007; Hanasaki et al, 2008b; van Beek and Bierkens, 2009; Best et al, 2011). Where land surface models focus on the vertical exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere, hydrological models focus on the lateral movement and availability of water By combining these two approaches, VIC simulations are strongly process based; this provides a good basis for climate-impact modelling. To assess the capability of the newly developed modules, the VIC-WUR results were compared with Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) national water withdrawals by sector and by source (FAO, 2016); with Huang et al (2018), Steinfeld et al (2006), and Shiklomanov (2000) data on water withdrawals by sector; with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage anomalies (NASA, 2002); with Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) streamflow time series (GRDC, 2003); and with Yassin et al (2019) and Hanasaki et al (2006) data on reservoir operation
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