Simulating growth dynamics in a South-East Asian rainforest threatened by recruitment shortage and tree harvesting

Abstract

There is increasing evidence that the future recruitment in South-East Asian dipterocarp trees species depending on mast-fruiting events might be endangered by climate change or enhanced seed predation in forest fragments. Especially in combination with the ongoing tree harvesting in this region the recruitment threat imposes a severe danger on the species richness and forest structure of the whole area. We here assess with the process-based forest growth model FORMIND2.0 the impacts of common tree-logging strategies in those recruitment endangered forests. FORMIND2.0 is based on the calculations of the carbon balance of individual trees belonging to 13 different plant functional types. Even single logging events in those rainforests threatened by a lack of recruitment led to shifts in the abundances of species, to species loss, and to forest decline and dieback. The results show that current logging practices in South-East Asia seriously overuse the forests especially in the light of changing climate conditions.