Simulating CH4 emissions from MSW landfills in China from 2003 to 2042 using IPCC and LandGEM models

Abstract

Anaerobic landfills have long been the primary means of municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal in China. Landfills are the third largest emission source of methane (CH4), which is the second most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and has a high greenhouse effect. To date, there have been no reliable model predictions of long-term CH4 emissions from landfills in China. In this study, two general models, IPCC and LandGEM, were introduced to simulate CH4 emissions from all landfills in China. By comparing the results of the Shuangkou landfill in Tianjin with the default and local parameters, the local parameters were fixed to simulate landfill CH4 emissions in 31 regions over 40 years (2003–2042). The MSW landfills were obtained from statistical data for 18 years (2003–2020). The total emissions in China predicted by LandGEM and IPCC were 2.42 E+07 Mg and 2.36 E+07 Mg, respectively. These data provide a reliable reference for determining the long-term CH4 emissions from landfills in China.