Simulating and predicting river discharge time series using a wavelet‐neural network hybrid modelling approach

Abstract

AbstractAccurate simulation and prediction of the dynamic behaviour of a river discharge over any time interval is essential for good watershed management. It is difficult to capture the high‐frequency characteristics of a river discharge using traditional time series linear and nonlinear model approaches. Therefore, this study developed a wavelet‐neural network (WNN) hybrid modelling approach for the predication of river discharge using monthly time series data. A discrete wavelet multiresolution method was employed to decompose the time series data of river discharge into sub‐series with low (approximation) and high (details) frequency, and these sub‐series were then used as input data for the artificial neural network (ANN). WNN models with different wavelet decomposition levels were employed to predict river discharge 48 months ahead of time. Comparison of results from the WNN models with those of the ANN models alone indicated that WNN models performed a more accurate prediction. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.