Abstract
An important, but overlooked component of disaster managment is raising the awareness and preparedness of potential stakeholders. We show how recent advances in agent-based modeling and geo-information analytics can be combined to this effect. Using a dynamic simulation model, we estimate the long run outcomes of two very different urban disasters with severe consequences: an earthquake and a missile attack. These differ in terms of duration, intensity, permanence, and focal points. These hypothetical shocks are simulated for the downtown area of Jerusalem. Outcomes are compared in terms of their potential for disaster mitigation. The spatial and temporal dynamics of the simulation yield rich outputs. Web-based mapping is used to visualize these results and communicate risk to policy makers, planners, and the informed public. The components and design of this application are described. Implications for participatory disaster management and planning are discussed.
Highlights
Communicating the likely outcomes of catastophic events to potential stakeholders is an integral part of disaster management
Attractiveness is related to the nature of the environment of the location, distance to current location and floor-space volume
The random, low-grade shocks erode re-organization capacity and the city never really recovers. This is reflected at the micro level
Summary
Communicating the likely outcomes of catastophic events to potential stakeholders is an integral part of disaster management. Building community resilience is as much about improving accessibility to information and arousing awareness of hazards, as it is about engaging engineering solutions This aspect of post-disaster management has been less investigated as it deals with longer term, less tangible outcomes. The situation is further confounded by the fact that technology for potentially conveying these outcomes is moving ahead faster than the ability to generate applications. This means that much potential information that could be made available lies dormant for lack of suitable means of communication. The section discusses some of the uses of web GIS for disaster management. We conclude with some implications for public participation in disaster management arising from the increasing transparency of methods and outcomes
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