Abstract
Agent based modeling, a processed based approach, is advantageous in simulating the interaction between human’s decision processes and environmental systems. In this study, we apply an agent-based model to simulate potential agricultural land use change scenarios in Uganda. The simulation model incorporates decision making processes at small holder and commercial farmers’ level on the basis of biophysical and socioeconomic factors and use these as basis to analyze how farmers’ decisions may affect agricultural land use changes. Geographic information system (GIS) tools are employed to build spatial relations between farmer agents and land cover system. Satellite imageries are used to represent the initial land cover condition and serve as observed land cover dataset to calibrate the simulated results. The results of the simulation model are promising and the model was successful at representing historical and future scenarios of agricultural land use patterns at national-level.
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