Abstract
The purpose of this research is to develop an econometric model of the Bade County, Florida housing market which will: (1) identify and measure the influence of major determinants of housing supply and demand in Bade County, and (2) provide a predictive tool to help planning agencies, lending institutions, and other participants in the local housing market foresee market performance based on various assumptions.
Highlights
The housing segment of the national economy is an important sector in most national forecasting models.' While there has been little effort made to model the housing portion of a local economy, it seems extremely unlikely that indices applicable to national housing markets would be related to local indices on a consistent basis
Fromm concluded that the national models he studied had proven unreliable for forecasting, since they were generally lacking variables encompasing the effects of: (1) mortgage rates reflecting fees and points: (2) federal housing subsidies: (3) institutional equity participations; (4) housing starts expressed both in units and dollars; (5) changes in construction costs over time; (6) commercial bank mortgages (7) vacancy rates; (8) dissaggregation of single and multiple housing units; (9) public housing; and
Fair commented that equations for estimating housing starts have had very limited success
Summary
The housing segment of the national economy is an important sector in most national forecasting models.' While there has been little effort made to model the housing portion of a local economy, it seems extremely unlikely that indices applicable to national housing markets would be related to local indices on a consistent basis. The purpose of this research is to develop an econometric model of the Bade County,Florida housing market which will:(1)identify and measure the influence of major determinants of housing supply and demand in Bade County, and (2) provide a predictive tool to help planning agencies, lending institutions, and other participants in the local housing market foresee market performance based on various assumptions. This first section briefly examined the literature on housing models.
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