Simulated volcanic ash imagery: A method to compare NAME ash concentration forecasts with SEVIRI imagery for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010

Abstract

During volcanic eruptions that eject ash into the atmosphere Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers issue statements on the forecast dispersion of the ash so that the aviation industry can manage airspace to avoid aircraft encountering volcanic ash. Observations, such as those from satellites, are compared with the forecasts from an atmospheric dispersion model to assess the quality of the ash forecasts. A method has been developed to enable like‐with‐like comparison between satellite imagery of volcanic ash and simulated imagery using the forecast ash concentration data from an atmospheric dispersion model. The ash concentration and numerical weather prediction data are used as inputs to a radiative transfer model to simulate radiances. Simulated satellite images are created from these simulated radiances. Here, Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager volcanic ash images based on infrared brightness temperatures for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010 are simulated. In addition to providing a useful tool for forecasters in a Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, the simulated images can be used to aid the understanding of how the ash affects the satellite imagery and also the physical properties of the ash.