Simulated Trends in Land Surface Sensible Heat Flux on the Tibetan Plateau in Recent Decades

Abstract

The spatial distribution and temporal variation of land surface sensible heat (SH) flux on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) for the period of 1981–2018 were studied using the simulation results from the Noah-MP land surface model. The simulated SH fluxes were also compared with the simulation results from the SEBS model and the results derived from 80 meteorological stations. It is found that, much larger annual mean SH fluxes occurred on the western and central TP compared with the eastern TP. Meanwhile, the inter-annual variations of SH fluxes on the central and western TP were larger than that on the eastern TP. The SEBS simulation showed much larger inter-annual variations than did the Noah-MP simulation across most of the TP. There was a trend of decrease in SH flux from the mid-1980s to the beginning of the 21st century in the Noah-MP simulations. Both Noah-MP and SEBS showed an increasing SH flux trend after this period of decrease. The increasing trend appeared on the eastern TP later than on the western and central TP. In the Noah-MP simulation, the western and central TP showed larger values of temperature difference between the ground surface and air (Ts–Ta) than did the eastern TP. Both mean Ts–Ta and wind speed decreased from the mid-1980s to approximately 2000, and then increased slightly. However, the Ts–Ta transition occurred later than that of wind speed. Changes in mean ground surface temperature (Ts) were the main cause of the decreasing and increasing trends in SH flux on the TP. Meanwhile, changes in wind speed contributed substantially to the decreasing trend in SH flux before 1998.