Abstract
One of the challenges of climate change in most coastal regions of the world is sea-level rise. This is of serious consequence as the coastal zone plays host to a large human population, abundant natural resources, and several ecosystem services. To alleviate the effect of climate change, proper planning of the coastal area is necessary to enhance the process of adaptation. This study attempts to project an estimate of the rate of sea-level rise along the coastline of Lagos, Nigeria in various time slices, i.e., 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 for all 4 RCP scenarios, as recommended by the IPCC using the simCLIM model. The result obtained shows the median projected sea-level rise values range from 11.86 cm to 49.22cm for RCP 2.6; 11.73 cm to 58.91 cm for RCP 4.5; 11.28 cm to 62.28 cm for RCP 6.0; 11.92 cm to 84.25 cm for RCP 8.0 respectively. Based on the results of the projections obtained in this study, coastal planning is advisable to provide a means of adaptation for the inhabitants as the consequence of lack of planning could lead to avoidable losses.
Highlights
Sea level has fluctuated considerably at different times throughout Earth’s existence
This study attempts to project an estimate of the rate of sea-level rise along the coastline of Lagos, Nigeria in various time slices, i.e., 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 for all 4 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, as recommended by the IPCC using the simCLIM model
The General Circulation Model (GCM) data in SimCLIM is from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CIMP5), which is the data source for IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and it provides projected values of climate change impacts using the sea level rise generator function [21]
Summary
Sea level has fluctuated considerably at different times throughout Earth’s existence. This study attempts to project an estimate of the rate of sea-level rise along the coastline of Lagos, Nigeria in various time slices, i.e., 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 for all 4 RCP scenarios, as recommended by the IPCC using the simCLIM model. The result obtained shows the median projected sea-level rise values range from 11.86 cm to 49.22cm for RCP 2.6; 11.73 cm to 58.91 cm for RCP 4.5; 11.28 cm to 62.28 cm for RCP 6.0; 11.92 cm to 84.25 cm for RCP 8.0 respectively.
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