Simulated influence of ice-shelf calving on the evolution of a potential West Antarctic Ice Sheet instability

Abstract

The observed rapid thinning, speed-up and retreat of the ice in West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea Embayment might indicate an early stage of a marine ice sheet instability (MISI), potentially leading to the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). In general, the stability of a marine ice sheet is strongly linked to the dynamics of its buttressing ice shelves which act as a regulator of the ice discharge into the ocean. Existing numerical modeling studies usually simulated MISI-type WAIS retreat either under prescribed fixed present-day calving front positions (associated with very strong ice-shelf buttressing) or in the absence of ice shelves (neglecting ice-shelf buttressing). These approaches represent extreme cases of realizing ice-shelf buttressing in simulations of a WAIS retreat and comparison between the study results are difficult due to the use of different numerical models and experimental designs. Here we aim to investigate the influence of time-evolving calving fronts and associated buttressing changes in the course of an unfolding WAIS disintegration, based on simulations with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). One focus will be on how ice-shelf calving affects MISI retreat rates and the extent of a potential WAIS collapse, i.e., the time evolution and magnitude of the associated sea-level contribution.