Simulated epidemiological and economic effects of measures to reduce piglet supply during a classical swine fever epidemic in the Netherlands

Abstract

The effects of additional measures adopted during a classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic to reduce piglet supply, namely, an insemination ban, abortion of sows and killing of young piglets, are studied using a stochastic, spatial, dynamic epidemiological simulation model of the pig sector in The Netherlands. The piglet supply derived from the epidemiological model is used as input for a sector-level market and trade model that simulates the pig market in The Netherlands. Changes in the economic welfare of different stakeholders are measured, as is the net welfare effect for the economy in The Netherlands. Sensitivity analysis is performed on parameters such as destruction capacity constraints and the duration of the high-risk period. Additional measures to reduce piglet supply are found to have no epidemiological impact, but they do involve larger economic welfare changes for stakeholders and a larger net welfare loss for the economy in The Netherlands. These findings do not support the use of the additional measures. Moreover, sensitivity analysis shows that such measures do not solve the problem of a shortage in rendering capacities.