Simulated Atmospheric Response to Regional and Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract

Abstract The loss of Arctic sea ice is already having profound environmental, societal, and ecological impacts locally. A highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. There is emerging evidence that the geographical location of sea ice loss is critically important in determining the large-scale atmospheric circulation response and associated midlatitude impacts. However, such regional dependencies have not been explored in a thorough and systematic manner. To make progress on this issue, this study analyzes ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model prescribed with sea ice loss separately in nine regions of the Arctic, to elucidate the distinct responses to regional sea ice loss. The results suggest that in some regions, sea ice loss triggers large-scale dynamical responses, whereas in other regions sea ice loss induces only local thermodynamical changes. Sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas is unique in driving a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, followed in time by a tropospheric circulation response that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation. For October–March, the largest spatial-scale responses are driven by sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas and the Sea of Okhotsk; however, different regions assume greater importance in other seasons. The atmosphere responds very differently to regional sea ice losses than to pan-Arctic sea ice loss, and the response to pan-Arctic sea ice loss cannot be obtained by the linear addition of the responses to regional sea ice losses. The results imply that diversity in past studies of the simulated response to Arctic sea ice loss can be partly explained by the different spatial patterns of sea ice loss imposed.