Simulated Annealingに基づくCO<sub>2</sub>排出抑制の電源ベストミックスへの影響評価

Abstract

This paper presents an efficient computational algorithm for selecting the optimal generation mix considering CO2 emissions. To demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method, a fundamental study of the evaluation of the optimal generation mix for controlling CO2 emissions is indicated. Furthermore, by using a parametric analysis which considers load characteristics as parameters, a general trend for the optimal generation mix which is affected by controlling CO2 can be derived. The proposed method is based on an optimization method known as simulated annealing. In the method, solutions in a generation mix problem are equivalent to state of a physical system, and the cost of a solution is equivalent to the energy of a state. The proposed method can easily accommodate not only CO2 emissions but also many practical constraints of generation expansion planning, such as integer solutions of unit capacities, condition of existing units, and so on. Case studies with various annual load patterns (combinations of annual load factors and the shapes of annual load duration curve) are presented and discussed. Consequently, a general trend for selecting generation technologies that should be added to a power system is derived, i.e., a useful guideline for studying generation expansion planning under controlling CO2 emissions can be provided.