Abstract
Roses are one of the most popular types of plants in the community. The sale of roses at the flower shop of 5 siblings is increasingly in demand. Identifying the increase in sales is important in analyzing sales progress. At the present time the seller can only see a manual increase in sales that are most in demand. This study aims to determine predictions of the increase in sales of rose flowers with a monte carlo simulation accurately and accurately. The data that will be processed in this study in the last 2 years, namely 2018 and 2019, rose plants obtained at the 5 Brothers Flower Shop in Solok City. There are several types of roses in the predicted sales level. Then the data will be converted into the probability distribution into cumulative frequency and followed by generating random numbers so that they can determine random numbers. Next, we will group the boundary intervals of the random numbers that have been obtained and continue with the simulation process so that the simulation results and percentage accuracy are obtained using the Monte Carlo method. The results of this study on data processing from 2019 to 2020 have an accuracy of 90%. So this research is very appropriate in identifying the increase in sales for the following year. The design of this system determines the amount of increased sales of goods using the monte carlo method in a flower shop of 5 siblings. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to identify specific sales increases. The results obtained are quite accurate using the Monte Carlo method.
Highlights
Roses are one of the most popular types of plants in the community
This study aims to determine predictions of the increase in sales of rose flowers with a monte carlo simulation accurately and accurately
Analisa Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Memprediksi Tingkat Kehadiran Mahasiswa dalam Perkuliahan (Studi Kasus: STMIK Pelita Nusantara)
Summary
Penjualan merupakan kegiatan pemasaran yang langsung berhubungan dengan konsumen pengguna. Keunggulan dari metode Monte Carlo ini diusahakan tepat waktu, dan perusahaan dapat merupakan alat perhitungan numerik yang kuat untuk mengatasi adanya permasalahan kehabisan stok, agar mensimulasikan data statistik, simulasi ini memperoleh dapat meningkatkan penjualan di waktu mendatang. Monte Carlo adalah suatu metode dalam sistem saling berinteraksi sehingga benar-benar yang digunakan untuk menghasilkan outcome dari menggambarkan perilaku sistem.Setelah model dibuat suatu distribusi probabilitas. Simulasi Monte Carlo memiliki sifat dasar stokastik yang artinya metode ini berdasarkan pada penggunaan angka-angka yang bersifat acak (random number) dan kemungkinan untuk mengidentifikasi sebuah masalah, metode ini sebelumnya digunakan untuk menyelesaikan masalah kuantitatif dengan proses fisik. Metode Monte Carlo Standardadalah sebuah teknik untuk menyelesaikan suatu masalah dengan menjalankan percobaan dalam jumlah banyak, yang disebut simulasi, untuk mendapatkan hasil yang paling mendekati dari percobaan yang dilakukan.
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