SIMULASI DAMPAK KENAIKAN UPAH MINIMUM TERHADAP TINGKAT PENDAPATAN DAN KEMISKINAN

Abstract

This research is aimed at analyzing the impact of minimum wage hike toward macro economy indicators, income and poverty level. In order to attain these, Computable General Equilibrium and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index were used. Policy simulations conducted with a simulated ex ante forecasting based on historical policy by changing the value of the policy variable. Simulations carried out by raising the regional minimum wage (UMR) by 6.61 percent (simulation-1) and 9.33 percent (simulation 2). The results of simulations, show that the impact of increased of minimum wage on increasing the income of workers and employees and reduce poverty in the group. But, the result of the study reveals that in general, the minimum wage hike recedes macro economy performances, increases good price, decreases purchasing power, export ,sectoral output and slightly increases poor households. In others words, the impact of wokers’ income rise is resulted by the policy of increasing the minimum pay, totally could not be able to equalise the negative effect of that policy in the form of declining the earning rate of other households.