Simulación del nivel de eliminación de sarampión y rubéola según la estratificación e interacción social

Abstract

The study was aimed at comparing measles and rubella disease elimination levels in a homogeneous and heterogeneous population according to socioeconomic status with interactions amongst low- and high-income individuals and diversity in the average number of contacts amongst them. Effective reproductive rate simulations were deduced from a susceptibleinfected- recovered (SIR) mathematical model according to different immunisation rates using measles (1980 and 2005) and rubella (1998 and 2005) incidence data from Latin-America and the Caribbean. Low- and high-income individuals' social interaction and their average number of contacts were analysed by bipartite random network analysis. MAPLE 12 (Maplesoft Inc, Ontario Canada) software was used for making the simulations. The progress made in eliminating both diseases between both periods of time was reproduced in the socially-homogeneous population. Measles (2005) would be eliminated in high- and low-income groups; however, it would only be achieved in rubella (2005) if there were a high immunity rate amongst the low-income group. If the average number of contacts were varied, then rubella would not be eliminated, even with a 95 % immunity rate. Monitoring the elimination level in diseases like measles and rubella requires that socio-economic status be considered as well as the population's interaction pattern. Special attention should be paid to communities having diversity in their average number of contacts occurring in confined spaces such as displaced communities, prisons, educational establishments, or hospitals.