Simplifying the Auto Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) Model Representing the Dynamic Thermal Behaviour of iHouse Based on Theoretical Knowledge

Abstract

Modelling and simulation is an alternative way of testing the dynamic behaviour of a real system – in some situation, testing the real system are expensive, time consuming, not comfortable, and dangerous. Mathematical model describing the dynamic behaviour of a system can be represented by using white, black, or grey box model. This study focuses on developing a simplified Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model (a type of linear black model) to represent the dynamic thermal behaviour of iHouse – simplification is done based on the theoretical knowledge of the building. The performance of the simplified ARMA model developed in this study is compared with the performance of the models developed in previous studies, which are: (1) House Thermal Simulator; (2) and ARMA model. Result shows that the simplified ARMA model developed in this study consists of simpler set of mathematical equations, but can still simulate the dynamic thermal behaviour of iHouse with the accuracy that is almost on par with the models developed in previous studies.