Abstract
Abstract. We propose and investigate the reliability of simplified graphical tools, which we term Hypsometric Vulnerability Curves, HVCs, for assessing flood vulnerability and risk over large geographical areas and for defining sustainable flood-risk mitigation strategies. These curves rely on the use of inundation scenarios simulated by means of quasi-two-dimensional (quasi-2-D) hydrodynamic models that reproduce the hydraulic behaviour of the floodable area outside the main embankment system of the study river reach. We present an application of HVCs constructed on the basis of land use and census data collected during the last 50 years for assessing the recent dynamics of the flood vulnerability and risk over a large floodable area along a 350 km stretch of the River Po (Northern Italy). We also compared the proposed simplified approach with a traditional approach based on simulations performed with the fully-2-D hydrodynamic model TELEMAC-2-D, a widely employed and well-known 2-D finite-element scheme. By means of this comparison, we characterize the accuracy of the proposed simplified approach (i.e. quasi-2-D model and HVCs) for flood-risk assessment over large geographical areas and different historical land-use scenarios.
Highlights
IntroductionAccording to the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT dataset; http://www.emdat.be), the most impacting natural disasters in terms of number of people affected and economic damages are the freshwater floodings (such as river floods, flash floods, urban inundation due to drainage problems, etc.), and the flood-related losses increased enormously in the last half century
According to the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT dataset; http://www.emdat.be), the most impacting natural disasters in terms of number of people affected and economic damages are the freshwater floodings, and the flood-related losses increased enormously in the last half century
We propose an approach based on simplified hydrodynamic models for assessing flood-risk over large geographical areas
Summary
According to the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT dataset; http://www.emdat.be), the most impacting natural disasters in terms of number of people affected and economic damages are the freshwater floodings (such as river floods, flash floods, urban inundation due to drainage problems, etc.), and the flood-related losses increased enormously in the last half century. Di Baldassarre et al, 2013, and references therein) Under this premise, the definition of a robust large-scale flood-risk mitigation strategy requires us to take into account the interaction between social and hydrological factors that characterize a specific area and to adopt holistic approaches for assessing flood risk and its evolution in time. The definition of a robust large-scale flood-risk mitigation strategy requires us to take into account the interaction between social and hydrological factors that characterize a specific area and to adopt holistic approaches for assessing flood risk and its evolution in time To this aim, we propose an approach based on simplified hydrodynamic models (i.e. quasi-two-dimensional, quasi-2-D) for assessing flood-risk over large geographical areas. We present an application of the proposed approach for quantifying floodrisk evolution during the last five decades (from 1954 to 2008) in a large flood-prone area ( ∼ 6100 km2) along the middle-lower portion of the Po river (Northern Italy), which we validate against traditional flood-risk assessment methods based on the use of fully-two-dimensional (fully-2-D) hydrodynamic models
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