Simplified equations for wet bulb globe temperature estimation in Bangladesh

Abstract

AbstractThe increasing temperatures and shifts in meteorological conditions have heightened the vulnerability of Bangladesh's densely populated regions, known for their high heat and humidity, to potential health hazards. While the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a widely acknowledged and robust measure for evaluating heat stress in various occupational and outdoor environments, its widespread application is impeded by the complexity of calculations, the substantial computational resources required, and the need for specialized expertise, particularly in developing nations. Therefore, this study aimed to develop simplified equations for estimating WBGT in Bangladesh using meteorological variables. This study applied Liljegren's model on high‐resolution reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) to calculate WBGT from 1979 to 2021. Subsequently, linear and nonlinear regressions were used to derive simplified equations for estimating Liljegren WBGT in Bangladesh. The quadratic regression models offer simplified equations for WBGT estimation. The model with only temperature (Ta) as an input estimates WBGT with an R2 of 0.967 and an RMSE of 0.716, effectively capturing a significant portion of WBGT variability. The inclusion of solar radiation (SR) with Ta improved the performance, with an R2 of 0.996 and an RMSE of 0.242. The best parsimonious model, with an R2 of 0.986 and an RMSE of 0.471, is derived when wind speed is considered with Ta and SR inputs, achieving an R2 of 0.993 and an RMSE of 0.331. Comprehensive graphical and statistical analyses confirm the high accuracy of all models. The three‐input model notably demonstrates exceptional performance, attaining optimal values for critical metrics, including extreme WBGT. The results affirm the practical suitability of the derived models for accurate estimations of WBGT in Bangladesh. These equations provide simplified tools for assessing heat stress conditions, contributing to public health initiatives, occupational safety guidelines, and climate change adaptation strategies.