Simplified automatic prediction of the level of damage to similar buildings affected by river flood in a specific area

Abstract

Flooding due to overflowing rivers affects the construction elements of many buildings. Although significant progress has been made in predicting this damage, there is still a need to continue studying this issue. For this reason, the main goal of this research focuses on finding out if, based on a small dataset of cases of a given area, it is possible to predict at least three degrees of affectation in buildings, considering only three environmental factors (minimum distance from the river, unevenness and possible water communication). To meet this goal, the methodological approach followed considers scientific literature review and collection and analysis of a small dataset from 101 buildings that have been affected by floods in the Guadalquivir River basin (Andalusia. Spain). After analyzing this data, algorithms based on machine learning (ML) are applied to predict the degree of affection. The results, analysis and conclusions indicate that, if the study focuses on a specific area and similar buildings, using a correlation matrix and ML algorithms such as the "Decision Tree" with cross-validation, around 90% can be achieved in the "Recall" and "Precision" of "High-Level-Affection" class, and an “Accuracy” around 80% in general.