Simple statistical insights into the COVID-19 data of Saudi Arabia: figures prior to vaccination campaign

Abstract

Background: COVID-19, the disease caused by the newly emerging coronavirus, SARS-COV2, is still a major health burden worldwide as it continues to spread rapidly in many countries after being contained for a while. The aim of the study was to analyze the official current disease estimates in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to anticipate future risks and needs. Methods: Publicly available COVID-19 data published by the Saudi Ministry of Health were analyzed to extract statistical estimates of the disease. These include monthly case fatality rates, death rates/1000, comparison of death figures and regression analysis. Results: The number of confirmed, recovered and deaths surged in the middle of the outbreak (June and July). The case fatality rates reported later in September-November were the highest despite the decline in the number of confirmed cases. The death rates/1000 were higher during the middle of the outbreak, where the highest numbers of deaths were recorded. The number of recovered cases was the highest as well during this time. Regression analysis showed that the number of deaths was related to that of confirmed cases, especially during the peak time. On the other hand, the number of recovered cases was related to that of confirmed cases at the beginning of the outbreak. Conclusion: Statistical estimates of COVID-19 fatalities provide simple figures to understand the disease progression pattern and the health care management success in disease containment. However, the absolute numbers should never be disregarded to reflect on the real situation.