Abstract
Several earthquake forecast experiments in Italy have been initiated within the European testing center of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. In preparation for these experiments, we developed space-rate-magnitude forecasts based on a simple model that incorporates the spatial clustering of the seismicity. This model, which we call the simple smoothed seismicity model (TripleS), has a minimal number of free parameters and is based on very few assumptions; therefore, it can be considered as a model of «least information» with which others can be compared. The fundamental TripleS parameter controls the spatial extent of the smoothing, and we selected its value based on an optimization procedure that was applied to retrospective forecast experiments. In this report, we present the motivation for developing TripleS, and describe the construction of forecasts for Italian seismicity. We also discuss the research questions that remain to be answered with respect to TripleS, and more generally, the smoothed seismicity approach to earthquake forecasting.
Highlights
Evaluation of earthquake forecast experiments requires careful consideration of the appropriate reference models
We considered a very basic model, which we call the Simple Smoothed Seismicity model (TripleS), that applies an isotropic Gaussian smoothing to the locations of past earthquakes to forecast the density of future seismicity
During the Collaboratory for the Study for Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) Italy experiments, the TripleS forecasts described in this article will be compared with several other forecasts, many of which derive from more complex models that incorporate multiple hypotheses regarding earthquake occurrence [Schorlemmer et al 2010, and references therein]
Summary
Evaluation of earthquake forecast experiments requires careful consideration of the appropriate reference models. Many previous studies have applied smoothed seismicity approaches that have incorporated various levels of complexity [e.g., Kagan and Jackson 1994, Frankel 1995, Jackson and Kagan 1999, Kagan and Jackson 2000, Stirling et al 2002, Stock and Smith 2002a, Stock and Smith 2002b, Helmstetter et al 2006, Helmstetter et al 2007, Kagan et al 2007, Petersen et al 2008, Werner et al submitted BSSA] Several of these analyses were made as part of regional and national seismic hazard mapping projects, and the Global Earthquake Model (http://www.globalquakemodel.org) will probably include a smoothed component. TripleS is characterized by one parameter: the smoothing distance, v, which is equivalent to the standard deviation of a one-dimensional Gaussian distribution
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