Simple simulation–optimisation vs SDP for reservoir operation

Abstract

This paper assesses the suitability of two simple parameterisation–simulation–optimisation (PSO) models used to set up release policies for water supply reservoirs. Operations guided by the generated rules are compared against those defined via classic stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). One PSO model, PSO-SOP, is a variant of the reservoir standard operating policy (SOP) and the other, PSO-ZON, is based on reservoir zoning. Both models were applied to the operation of a reservoir in northeastern Brazil under several synthetic 100-year monthly inflow scenarios. Operations were also carried out by the original SOP and by deterministic optimisation based on perfect inflow forecast, the latter used as a benchmark. In the majority of the 100 scenarios utilised, the performance of both SPD and PSO-SOP was found to be superior to that of PSO-ZON and SOP. Furthermore, the uncomplicated PSO-SOP model performed even better than the more complex SDP.