Simple prediction tools for disease progression in unvaccinated patients with mild/moderate COVID-19 aged under 65 years: Simplified DOATS and DOAT scores

Abstract

DOATS score and DOAT score, COVID-19 progression prediction tools we have developed, utilize clinical information such as presence of diabetes/obesity (DO), age (A), body temperature (T), and oxygen saturation (S). They showed good predictive power, but their scoring calculation was slightly complex, leading us to develop simplified versions. This report discusses the ability of the simplified versions to assess deterioration risk in unvaccinated, mild/moderate COVID-19 patients aged <65 years. Logistic regression analysis identified independent risk factors for deterioration, to which points were assigned in order to derive overall prediction scores. The simplified versions showed high discriminating power, with the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for DOATS and DOAT being 0.79 and 0.77, respectively, indicating their clinical utility. Although the original versions have a slightly higher predictive power, the new versions are easier to use in emergency situations; thus, importantly, selecting the appropriate version depends on the situation.