Abstract
Abstract The aim of the article was to assess the similarities of average price changes in the residential market in 34 European countries in 2010-2016. The first part of the study concerned tendencies of changes in average prices in residential markets in the studied countries, while the second part analyzed co-occurrence of changes in these countries in time. The study covered the period after the first wave of the financial crisis in Europe and took into account the second wave of crisis in several euro area countries. Price indices, trend functions, price ranges, linear correlation coefficients and shape similarity measure were utilized for conducting this study. European countries, in general, differed with respect to changes in prices in the residential market. 12 countries were characterized by a trend of increasing price indices. 18 countries were classified as correcting countries, as during the studied period they were distinguished by a clear change in trend. Four countries with a downward trend during the study period were also identified. Furthermore, a differentiation between the countries was found due to the values of price ranges during the studied period. Studies of co-occurrence in time were conducted with the use of linear correlation coefficients mainly for groups of rising countries and falling countries. The study was conducted using measures of shape similarity, which allowed for an identification of converging, leading and following markets for some countries.
Highlights
In general, differed with respect to changes in prices in the residential market. 12 countries were characterized by a trend of increasing price indices. 18 countries were classified as correcting countries, as during the studied period they were distinguished by a clear change in trend
Monitoring, analysis and forecasting of residential market conditions is essential for national economies
Research centers in individual countries systematically perform studies concerning the shaping of residential prices, housing availability, housing loan availability, and supply and demand in the housing market
Summary
Monitoring, analysis and forecasting of residential market conditions is essential for national economies. Research centers in individual countries systematically perform studies concerning the shaping of residential prices (in nominal and real terms), housing availability (i.e. the ratio of housing prices to wages), housing loan availability Comparative analyses of residential real estate markets are often the topic of research studies. Such comparisons often concern both local real estate markets in a given country as well as real estate markets in different countries. Both comparisons have important scientific implications for real estate market economics. The results obtained have a practical dimension, especially allowing for eg. the diversification of real estate investment fund portfolios, risk management in banks engaged in mortgage activity, and for forecasting residential prices with the use of spatial-temporal analogies
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