Similarities in Homicide Trends in the United States and Canada

Abstract

The decrease in the overall homicide rate in the United States during the latter 1990s has been explained in terms of changes in various factors such as the availability of guns, crack markets, and demographics. Although these are all plausible explanations, they do not explain why Canada has experienced similar declines in homicide rates during that same period. Homicides in Canada are qualitatively different from homicides in the United States, and thus changes in gun availability or crack markets are likely not behind the decrease in Canada’s homicide rate. However, changes in demographics might be one explanation behind Canada’s decreasing homicide rate. Analyses revealed that as in U.S. research findings, changes in demographics appear to account for roughly 14% of Canada’s decreasing homicide rate. Thus, although the homicides are qualitatively different from one another, demographics appear to account for similarly small proportions of the change in homicide rates in both countries.