Signs of potential renewal of eruptive activity at La Fossa (Vulcano, Aeolian Islands)

Abstract

Since the end of the last magmatic eruption (1890), activity of La Fossa (southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) has consisted of fumarolic emissions of fluctuating intensity. Fluids are discharged principally at two fumarolic fields located in the northern rim of the active crater and at the beach sited at its northern foot. Increased thermal, seismic and geochemical activity has been recorded since 1978, when an earthquake of M=5.5 occurred in the region. This paper combines available geophysical and geochemical information in order to develop a tentative interpretation of two episodes of apparent unrest which occurred in 1985 and 1987–1988, enhancing the risk of renewal of the eruptive activity. The 1985 unrest consisted essentially of a sharp build up of the internal pressure in the shallow hydrothermal system, which was induced by the injection of hot gases of magmatic origin. The crater fumaroles displayed significant increases in CO2 and other acid species, but their outlet temperature did not change. Conversely, the 1987–1988 episode was characterized by appreciable modifications at the crater fumaroles, with only secondary effects at the fumarole system of the beach. The sliding of part of the eastern flank of the La Fossa cone into the sea occurred on 20 April 1988, when the region was affected by crustal dilatation producing a seismic sequence of relatively high intensity. Both episodes of unrest were accompanied by increases of local microseismic activity, which affected the nothern sector of the island in 1985, and the southern one in 1988. Finally, a phase of appreciable areal contraction was detected in 1990, probably due to the effect of the cooling and crystallization of magma at relatively shallow depths, accompanying the increased thermal activity at the crater fumaroles. Regional tectonic stress seems to play an important role in the transition of the volcanic system from a phase of relative stability to a phase of apparent unrest, inducing the heating and the expansion of shallow hydrothermal fluids. Available information is insufficient to indicate whether or not the volcano is building towards the renewal of a magmatic eruption, and there is no evidence to hypothesize episodes of significant magma migration. The frequency of measurements of many parameters needs to be increased in order to learn more about the temporal relationships between geochemical and geophysical variations preceding and accompanying periods of increased thermal activity. This will probably be a valid tool for recognizing short-term precursors of a future eruption, reducing the risk of false alarms.