Signs and portents: determining the long-term association of New Deal era redlining with contemporary racial/ethnic compositions

Abstract

This study explores the impact of New Deal-era redlining in the form of Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) evaluations on the racial and ethnic makeup of U.S. cities decades later. We draw upon a sample of 172 cities across the United States from the Mapping Decline project and historical Census data collected by the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) and the Longitudinal Tract Database (LTDB), addressing a gap in the literature by directly measuring whether the HOLC grades predict the subsequent local distribution of Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations. Our findings reveal a discernible yet diminishing connection between HOLC redlining and future Black populations, with the relationship with future Hispanic populations varying depending on whether the HOLC grade was a C or D. Only some correlation is observed between HOLC redlining and future Asian populations. This study highlights the intricate and evolving dynamics of race influenced by historical housing policies.