Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic that started in China has spread within 3 months to the entire globe. We tested the hypothesis that the vaccination against tuberculosis by Bacille Calmette–Guérin vaccine (BCG) correlates with a better outcome for COVID-19 patients. Our analysis covers 55 countries complying with predetermined thresholds on the population size and number of deaths per million (DPM). We found a strong negative correlation between the years of BCG administration and the DPM along with the progress of the pandemic, corroborated by permutation tests. The results from multivariable regression tests with 23 economic, demographic, health-related, and pandemic restriction-related quantitative properties, substantiate the dominant contribution of BCG years to the COVID-19 outcomes. The analysis of countries according to an age-group partition reveals that the strongest correlation is attributed to the coverage in BCG vaccination of the young population (0–24 years). Furthermore, a strong correlation and statistical significance are associated with the degree of BCG coverage for the most recent 15 years, but no association was observed in these years for other broadly used vaccination protocols for measles and rubella. We propose that BCG immunization coverage, especially among the most recently vaccinated population, contribute to attenuation of the spread and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Highlights
COVID-19 has spread within 3 months to 213 countries across the globe
In order to increase the robustness of the analysis, countries were included in the selected cohort if their population size was >3M, and they met the criteria of ≥3 deaths per 1 M population on 17 if their population size was >3M, and they met the criteria of ≥3 deaths per 1 M population on Altogether, there are 134 countries with population size >3M
Our results suggest that in countries where the young population is vaccinated by Bacille Calmette–Guérin vaccine (BCG), a maximal protection is provided to the whole population
Summary
COVID-19 has spread within 3 months to 213 countries across the globe. The country-specific reports that are compiled daily by the World Health Organization (WHO) and made publicly available, provide statistical information on the number of tests performed, the number of confirmed cases, deaths and the cumulative state of patients hospitalized in serious and critical conditions [1].Along with the spread of the pandemic, most countries imposed a policy of social distancing and other regulation to mitigate COVID-19 [2,3]. COVID-19 has spread within 3 months to 213 countries across the globe. The country-specific reports that are compiled daily by the World Health Organization (WHO) and made publicly available, provide statistical information on the number of tests performed, the number of confirmed cases, deaths and the cumulative state of patients hospitalized in serious and critical conditions [1]. Along with the spread of the pandemic, most countries imposed a policy of social distancing and other regulation to mitigate COVID-19 [2,3]. With 400,000 reported deaths and a world average of 51 deaths per million (DPM, June 6th, 2020), the death toll remains the most reliable measure for monitoring the spread and progression of the disease across countries [10]. While some European countries such as Belgium and the UK the DPM is >500, other infected countries (e.g., Hungary, Norway) are closer to the world
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