Significant Association Between Winter North Atlantic SST and Spring NDVI Anomaly Over Eurasia

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, the single value decomposition method was used to analyze the covariation between the winter (December, January, and February) North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and spring (April and May) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) over mid‐high‐latitude Eurasia for the period 1982–2015. The results show that the first paired mode explains 32.8% of the total squared covariance, and the correlation of time coefficients is +0.67 (p < 0.01), suggesting that the meridional tripole structure of the winter North Atlantic SST is significantly associated with the three zonally anomalous centers of the spring mid‐high‐latitude Eurasian NDVI. Surface air temperature (T2m) is the most important factor related to spring NDVI changes. The tripole pattern of the winter North Atlantic SST can persist until the following spring, triggering an eastward anomalous Rossby wave train in the middle troposphere, which features two negative geopotential height anomalies centers near northwestern Europe and eastern Siberia and one positive center over central Eurasia. Surface temperature anomalies are well consistent with these anomalous pressure centers. This implies that the winter North Atlantic SST could be a robust driver and potential precursor for spring vegetation prediction over the mid‐high latitudes of Eurasia.