Significance of serum AMH and antral follicle count discrepancy for the prediction of ovarian stimulation response in Poseidon criteria patients.

Abstract

To determine the risk of not being a poor responder in ovarian stimulation (OS) for in vitro fertilization (IVF) when ovarian reserve markers are discordant-one falling within Poseidon's criteria normal range (e.g., anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) ≥ 1.2ng/mL or antral follicle count (AFC) ≥ 5), and the other in the poor ovarian reserve range. A tri-center retrospective cohort study (2015-2017) involving women with discordant AMH and AFC values undergoing their first IVF/ICSI cycle using conventional OS (cOS, ≥ 150IU/day of follicle-stimulating hormone). Discordant serum AMH and AFC values were defined according to Poseidon's criteria (AMH < 1.2ng/mL and AFC ≥ 5 or AMH ≥ 1.2ng/mL and AFC < 5). Poor ovarian response (POR) was < 4 retrieved oocytes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine AMH and AFC cut-offs for non-POR. Logistic regression analysis evaluated factors associated with non-POR. Out of 8797 patients who underwent assessment with both AMH and AFC, 1172 (13.3%) exhibited discordant values. Of these, 854 (72.9%) had ≥ 4 oocytes retrieved. Within this group, 726 (85.0%) had "low" AMH values, whereas 128 (15.0%) had "low" AFCs. An AFC of 6 had 77% sensitivity and 52% specificity (AUC = 0.700), while AMH of 1.19ng/mL had 31% sensitivity and 85% specificity (AUC = 0.492) for non-POR. AFC and the use of recombinant gonadotropins were positive predictors of non-POR. When serum AMH is < 1.19ng/mL, but AFC is ≥ 6, there is a moderate likelihood of a non-POR during stimulation. Conversely, if AFC is < 5 but serum AMH is ≥ 1.19ng/mL, the chances of non-POR are low. Among patients with discordant markers, AFC emerges as the primary predictor of oocyte yield.