Significance of dissolved organic carbon in the prediction of thermocline depth in small Canadian shield lakes

Abstract

Empirical models used to predict thermocline depths of lakes have typically been based on physical and morpho-metric variables. However, lakes with appreciable levels of dissolved organic material, including those found on the Canadian Precambrian Shield (DOC levels 1.4-12.41 mg/l), have seldom been included in these models. Our analysis suggests that for such lakes, thermocline depth is linked strongly to light penetration (Secchi depth r = 0.83, light extinction r = 0.85) which is strongly related to DOC concentration (Secchi depth r = 0.91, light extinction r = 0.97). A multivariate regression based on small Canadian Shield lakes suggests that DOC is the most important predictor of thermocline depth. Maximum effective length, maximum depth, and chlorophyll a contribute significantly to the prediction power of the regression model, but are of secondary importance in the presence of DOC.