Abstract
Testing and isolation have been crucial for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuela has one of the weakest testing infrastructures in Latin America and the low number of reported cases in the country has been attributed to substantial underreporting. However, the Venezuelan epidemic seems to have lagged behind other countries in the region, with most cases occurring within the capital region and four border states. Here, we describe the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 in Venezuela and its relation to the population mobility, migration patterns, non-pharmaceutical interventions and fuel availability that impact population movement. Using a metapopulation model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, we explore how movement patterns could have driven the observed distribution of cases. Low within-country connectivity most likely delayed the onset of the epidemic in most states, except for those bordering Colombia and Brazil, where high immigration seeded outbreaks. NPIs slowed early epidemic growth and subsequent fuel shortages appeared to be responsible for limiting the spread of COVID-19 across the country.
Highlights
The incidence of reported COVID-19 cases in Venezuela is one of the lowest in LatinAmerica
We investigate the spatial dynamics of COVID-19 in Venezuela, in relation to population mobility, migration, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and fuel availability during the first wave of the epidemic
Data from Venezuela were obtained from official reports and corrected using the percent positivity to account for substantial underreporting (Figure A2) [8]
Summary
The incidence of reported COVID-19 cases in Venezuela is one of the lowest in Latin. As of 17 May 2021, a total of 216,415 cases (0.9% of the population) and 2411 deaths have been officially confirmed. Testing has been among the lowest in the region [1,2]. An average of 17 PCR tests per 1000 inhabitants had been carried out as of 21 December 2020 [3] (accessed on 25 May 2021). Except for five laboratories approved by the government, testing initiatives have been banned [1].
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