Abstract
In Europe, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) encouraged the specialisation of agriculture and forestry systems by supporting schemes that promoted productivity, despite the socio-ecological changes’ detrimental effects on ecosystem services and biodiversity. In the case of mountain viticulture of southern Europe, the adoption of intensive management techniques triggered noticeable changes in farming systems, namely the removal of traditional stonewalls and semi-natural vegetation, partially compensated by eco schemes and agri-environment-climate measures. By combining fieldwork information with spatio-temporal modelling techniques, a novel hybrid framework is explained and implemented to predict the population trends of a critically endangered bird species in Portugal, the Black Wheatear (Oenanthe leucura), to the individual and/or combined effects of the removal of traditional stonewall terraced vineyards and the implementation of cover crops. The results obtained demonstrate the relevance of stonewall terraced vineyards (and the negative effects of their removal) for the conservation of Black Wheatear, namely during the breeding season when holes and crevices are used for nesting. Conversely, and in accordance with our simulations, the increase in the area occupied by vineyards with cover crops seems particularly detrimental for the species, by decreasing the quality of the feeding grounds. As cover crops, and possibly other eco schemes and agri-environment-climate measures, might not be the panacea for halting biodiversity loss in mountain viticulture, adaptation of measures to species’ ecological requirements is urgent for a successful EU biodiversity strategy for 2030.
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