Sidama state will deepen Ethiopia’s political tensions

Abstract

Subject Implications of the Sidama bid for their own state. Significance The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced on August 29 that a referendum to decide on the demand of the Sidama ethnic group in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) for their own federal state will be held in November. Although the referendum responds to long-standing Sidama demands, it also poses complex implementation challenges, notably regarding the rights and protection of minority ethnic groups in a future Sidama regional state, the division of resources and the status of Hawassa city, the centre of the Sidama statehood claim and capital of the SNNPR. Impacts The weakening of the regional ruling party will further undermine efforts to hold the region together. If Sidama statehood occurs before the 2020 elections, tensions will arise over the division of constituencies between SNNPR and Sidama. Instability in SNNPR could disrupt trade and transport, notably for coffee exports and companies operating in the Hawassa Industrial Zone. A Sidama referendum would provide the newly formed NEBE with useful experience in preparation for the 2020 elections.