Abstract
We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalizations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that school closures contribute to a reduction in the growth rate approximately 7 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. In countries where community transmission is generally low, such as Denmark or Norway, a large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible. However, school reopening can contribute to statistically significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. In all regions, a combination of low classroom occupancy and robust test-and-trace measures were in place. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
Highlights
Throughout the course of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the role of young people and children in transmission has been a question of particular concern [1,2]
We wish to examine roles in transmission played by (a) the different age cohorts of students, (b) the timing of the school interventions, and (c) the background or community incidence. We hope these results can serve as a series of lessons learned from nations that have already reopened schools. We address these questions by estimating the time between intervention and a response being observed in the recorded data, as well as the changes in the growth rate pre- and post-intervention
We consider the date of school closure as the first day on which all schools in a state were closed as a response to state or national government intervention
Summary
Throughout the course of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the role of young people and children in transmission has been a question of particular concern [1,2]. This question is motivated by the goal of protecting the younger generations; it is known from other respiratory diseases that, because younger people tend to have more prolonged and physical contacts among themselves [3], they pose a greater risk of infection to each other as well as being likely to introduce the infection to their respective households, and so can drive the epidemic [4,5]. For new or emerging infections, answers to these questions require new efforts to establish an age-stratified understanding of the infection and transmission dynamics [9,10]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
