Shrinking Working-Age Population and Food Demand: Evidence from Rural China.

Abstract

China is facing a rapidly aging population, and the proportion of the working-age population (WAP) is showing a decreasing trend. In this study, we use a two-stage budgeting quadratic almost-ideal demand system framework to estimate the distribution of food demand elasticity under different proportions of the WAP in rural China. The results show that the income elasticities of rural residents' demand for fruits and vegetables, animal products, oils and fats, and grains were 0.73, 0.65, 0.55, and 0.48, respectively. Additionally, the income elasticity of rural residents tended to increase as the household proportion of the WAP decreased. These results can provide a deeper understanding of the food consumption patterns of rural residents in China, and could be used in general or partial equilibrium models to forecast food supply and demand.