Abstract
Accurate wind resource assessments are crucial in the development of wind farm projects. However, it is common practice to estimate the wind yield over the next 20 years from short-term measurements and reanalysis data of the past 20 years, even though wind climatology is expected to change under the future climate. The present work examines future changes in wind power output over Europe using an ensemble of ESMs. The power output is calculated using the entire wind speed PDF and a non-constant power conversion coefficient. Based on this method, the ESM ensemble projects changes in near-future power outputs with a spatially varying magnitude between −12% and 8%. The most extreme changes occur over the Mediterranean region. For the first time, the sensitivity of these future change in power output to the type of wind turbine is also investigated. The analysis reveals that the projected wind power changes may vary in up to half of their magnitude, depending on the type of turbine and region of interest. As such, we recommend that wind industries fully account for projected near-future changes in wind power output by taking them into account as a well-defined loss/gain and uncertainty when estimating the yield of a future wind farm.
Highlights
The recommendations of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are clear: ‘Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions’ (Qin et al 2013)
This study reports on estimating the potential change in power output over Europe under near-future (2020– 2049) climate change conditions (RCP4.5 scenario), based on an ensemble of earth system models (ESMs)
Our results show that mean wind speeds are projected to increase significantly with 2%–4% over northwestern Europe during summer and winter, while significant decreases of 3%–6% are expected for the Mediterranean in winter
Summary
The recommendations of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are clear: ‘Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions’ (Qin et al 2013). To mitigate the climate change that the IPCC expects, the European Council agreed in 2015 on the ambitious target that by 2030 all member states should gain at least 27% of energy from renewable sources, such as wind energy (Canete 2015). To achieve this goal, European countries will have to increase their investments in the development of wind energy projects. It is extremely important to make this yield estimation as adequately as possible, especially at a time when governmental support is cutting back and competition in the wind industry is growing. Possible future changes in wind climatology are generally only addressed as an extra uncertainty (of typically 2% for northern Europe) on the resulting estimation of the power production of the farm (Nielsen 2010)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
