Abstract

Should acyclovir prophylaxis be used in late pregnancy in women with recurrent genital herpes infection? How to use a clinical decision analysis.

Highlights

  • The purpose of this article is to explore the benefits of using decision analysis in clinical decision making when the published evidence about the effectiveness of an intervention is uncertain

  • Women with genital herpes infection in pregnancy are at risk of transmitting herpes to their baby at the time of delivery resulting in neonatal herpes infection

  • If there is evidence of an active recurrence delivery by caesarean section is recommended to avoid the risk of mother to child transmission.[5]

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Summary

Introduction

The purpose of this article is to explore the benefits of using decision analysis in clinical decision making when the published evidence about the effectiveness of an intervention is uncertain. The use of decision analysis will be explored using the example of aciclovir prophylaxis in late pregnancy for women with recurrent genital herpes infection.' The article draws on the guidelines published by Richardson and others which set out a framework for evaluating the usefulness of a clinical decision analysis model (table 1).[2 3]

THE CLINICAL PROBLEM
DECISION ANALYSIS
THE EVIDENCE FOR ACICLOVIR SUPPRESSION
OUTCOMES INCLUDED?
STRATEGIES COMPARED?
Number of neonatal HSVcases averted
WERE ALL CLINICALLY RELEVANT OUTCOMES
EVIDENCE INTO PROBABILITIES?
AND SENSIBLE WAY FROM CREDIBLE SOURCES?
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVIDENCE DETERMINED?
STRATEGY RESULT IN A CLINICALLY
HOW STRONG IS THE EVIDENCE USED IN THE
CHANGE THE RESULT?
Factor varied in sensitivity analysis
DO THE PROBABILITY ESTIMATES FIT MY
WOULD VALUE THE OUTCOMES OF THE
Further reading
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