Short-term wind forecast for the safety management of complex areas during hazardous wind events

Abstract

This paper describes the short-term wind forecast system realised in the framework of the European Project “Wind and Ports: The forecast of wind for the management and safety of port areas”. The project׳s aim is to contribute improving the safety and accessibility to the harbour areas of the largest ports in the Northern Tyrrhenian Sea, which are frequently exposed to hazardous winds, in order to minimise the risks for users, structures, transport means, stored goods and boats within the ports. The short-term wind forecast system is based on a mixed statistical-numerical procedure, trained by means of local wind measurements and implemented into an operational chain for the real-time prediction of the maximum expected wind velocity corresponding to three forecast horizons (30, 60 and 90min) and three non-exceeding probabilities (90%, 95%, and 99%). The local wind measurements used to train the forecast algorithms have been recorded from the 15 ultra-sonic anemometers installed in the Ports of Savona, La Spezia, and Livorno. This wind-monitoring network is used also to carry out the short-term forecast system a posteriori verification and validation.