Short-Term Political Events and British Government Popularity: Direct and Indirect Effects

Abstract

We investigate the effect of non-economic variables on public opinion in Great Britain. We find that such factors have a direct impact on the popularity of the British prime minister, but not on the popularity of the governing party. Rather, the effect of non-economic variables on party popularity is indirect, operating through the prime minister's popularity. Thus the party's electoral fortunes are closely tied to the prime minister's own popularity, increasing the importance of personality and personal factors in British politics.