Short-term Load Forecasting with Deep Boosting Transfer Regression

Abstract

With the increasing popularity of electric vehicles and the growing trend of working from home, electricity consumption in the residential sector is expected to continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. As a consequence, short-term residential load forecasting is becoming even more vital for the reliability and sustainability of the smart grid. Although deep learning models have shown impressive success in different areas including short-term electric load forecasting, such models require a large amount of training data. For many real-world load forecasting cases, we may not have enough training data to learn a reliable forecasting model. In this paper, we address this challenge through the use of boosting-based transfer learning with multiple sources. We first train a set of deep regression models on source houses that can provide relatively abundant data. We then transfer these learned models via the boosting framework to support data-scarce target houses. The transfer process is selective and customized for each target house to minimize the potential for negative transfer. Experimental results, based on real-world residential data sets, show that the proposed method can significantly improve forecasting accuracy.