Abstract
This paper presents a new approach for short term load forecasting using a diagonal recurrent neural network with an adaptive learning rate. The fully connected recurrent neural network (FRNN), where all neurons are coupled to one another, is difficult to train and to converge in a short time. The DRNN is a modified model of FRNN. It requires fewer weights than FRNN and rapid convergence has been demonstrated. A dynamic backpropagation algorithm coupled with an adaptive learning rate guarantees even faster convergence. To consider the effect of seasonal load variation on the accuracy of the proposed forecasting model, forecasting accuracy is evaluated throughout a whole year. Simulation results show that the forecast accuracy is improved. >
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