Short-Term Forecasting of Power Consumption of Power Supply Companies Based on the Integration of Technologies of Analytical, Simulation and Expert Systems

Abstract

Purpose of research is to improve software support and identify regularities in the processes of short-term forecasting of power consumption of power supply companies based on complementary integration of data mining models, system dynamics and expert systems.Methods. The principles of constructing predictive models of power consumption are given. A system analysis has been carried out and an ontological model of the subject area has been built, taking into account the technological and market environment. The classification of forecasting methods has been considered. The features of the information base for short-term forecasting, including data on actual power consumption and weather data, have been described. The requirements for software for making forecasts have been formulated. A block diagram of the system for forecasting power consumption of the market for the day ahead is built based on the complementary integration of data analysis and modeling software.Results. Scenarios for data processing in Loginom have been developed using the Arimax and Neural Network (Regression) processors to build forecasts based on actual power consumption and taking into account meteorological factors. A system dynamics simulation model that allows exploring the influence of meteorological factors (temperature, pressure, precipitation) on power consumption has been developed in Anylogic. Using Wi!Mi mivar constructor of expert systems, the task has been parametrized; indicators, relationships, rules have been set; a logical conclusion of the solution has been obtained.Conclusion. A block diagram of a system for forecasting the market's power consumption for the day ahead has been built. It is based on the analysis of retrospective information on actual power consumption and meteorological factors using data mining methods, system dynamics and expert systems applying Russian Loginom, Anylogic and Wi!Mi software tools.