Short-term Aftershock Probabilities: Case Studies in California

Abstract

Research Article| January 01, 2007 Short-term Aftershock Probabilities: Case Studies in California M. C. Gerstenberger; M. C. Gerstenberger Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar L. M. Jones; L. M. Jones Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. Wiemer S. Wiemer Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information M. C. Gerstenberger L. M. Jones S. Wiemer Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1938-2057 Print ISSN: 0895-0695 © 2007 by the Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2007) 78 (1): 66–77. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.1.66 Article history First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation M. C. Gerstenberger, L. M. Jones, S. Wiemer; Short-term Aftershock Probabilities: Case Studies in California. Seismological Research Letters 2007;; 78 (1): 66–77. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.1.66 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search Motivated by the public's desire to learn as much as possible following the occurrence of damaging events, we have developed a methodology to spatially map the probability of earthquake occurrence in the next 24 hours. We start with the simple aftershock model of Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1990, 1994): \[\ {\lambda}(t,M)=\frac{10^{a^{{^\prime}}+b(M_{m}-M)}}{(t+c)^{P}},{\ }M{\geq}M_{c}\] (1) where λ(t, M) is the rate of aftershocks larger than a magnitude threshold, Mc, and occurring at time t. The constants á and b are derived from the Gutenberg-Richter relationship (Gutenberg and Richter 1944), and p... You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.